Melbourne Demons finished 14th on the ladder after a tumultuous 2024 season which not only ended their shot at a dynasty, but also forced the club into an external review.
Fans will be desperately hoping that last season was an outlier and with a fit Clayton Oliver and committed Christian Petracca, they can change their fortune and contend for the flag in 2025. Finals are by no means out of the question, but you can't help but feel Melbourne's premiership window has closed, I'd go as far as saying their premiership window is jammed shut.
People are talking a lot about 'aura' since Kane Cornes said Adem Yze lacked the quality. I don't believe the Demons have that aura anymore, like they had when Kysaiah Pickett and Bayley Fritsch were dominating the forward line. While many people still back them to make finals, nobody really thinks they're a genuine chance at the flag. Doesn't that mean they're just making up the numbers?
As it stands at the moment, there are nine teams that are shorter odds at winning this year's premiership with the Dees paying $21.
The Dees had a real crack against GWS Giants last Sunday but had to suffer through another heartbreaking loss as Lachlan Keefe stood up to be the unlikely hero in the final minute. Even after Max Gawn had monstered him all day, he went back and put it through the big sticks. A big big sound followed as Melbourne start the season 0-1. Giants are tipped to be one of, if not the best side in the competition, however when Melbourne puts itself in a winning position, it has to execute and bank wins like that.
The previous three years have been nothing short of disappointing for the dominant Demons, they were knocked out of finals in both 2022 and 2023 after carrying a combined 32-13 home and away season record into the finals. They were strong contenders and one of the heavy favourites for the flag in both seasons but fell to straight sets exits both times.
The Demons have been one of the best and most dominant teams on paper over the last five years and while they gave the red and blue faithful a taste of the ultimate success in 2021, a dynasty has well and truly gone begging.
There is no doubt that people will look back in five or 10 years from now at the Demons of this era, a midfield stacked with players like Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca and Jack Viney and wonder how they only managed to win the one premiership. Premiership windows are spoken about a lot in the AFL and despite the club clinging onto hopes of winning another flag with its core group, it is clear Melbourne has now passed its premiership window.
Richmond (2017, 19, 20) was the most recent side to complete a dynasty with three premierships in four years, while Hawthorn (2013, 14, 15) and Geelong (2007, 09, 11) had sustained success prior to that. The Demons were threatening to dominate the competition for years after their 2021 finals’ series saw them win a drought-breaking flag, their first in 57 long years, but that is where their premiership glory will stay for a little while.
History and building a premiership team
The recent inability of Melbourne to taste the ultimate success is made more heartbreaking for the Demons faithful when you take into account their recent hiatus between premierships. Their most recent flag before 2021 was their four-point victory over Collingwood in the 1964 grand final. Norm Smith was the coach and Ron Barrassi was the captain.
Melbourne got close to winning one in 2000 after a strong season where they finished third on the ladder, but it was the Bombers who prevailed in the big dance, winning easily by 50 points. After a few more years of playing finals post that season, the Dees then went through what can only be considered as the ‘dark ages’ for the club.
In the 10 years from 2007-16, they finished no higher than 11th and lost 163 of their 220 matches – a winning percentage of a miserable 25 per cent.
The best or most positive part about this period was the talent that the club found at the draft with plenty of high picks each year, which essentially helped to build the 2021 premiership team, as well as the inclusion of players traded in from other clubs like Jake Lever (Adelaide) and Steven May (Gold Coast).
The years of 2014 and 2015 were the two most successful drafts for the club during this period as they secured core players like Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw and Alex Neal-Bullen which helped them to build a premiership team.
Finals woes after home and away success
It has been home and away dominance for the Demons since the start of 2021, but this has only got them so far. Coach Simon Goodwin has been able to help the side produce some clinical performances over his time at the helm, but unfortunately his team just hasn’t performed in September.
Melbourne’s best three seasons on paper in their entire club’s history have been 2021, 22 and 23 – with just one flag to show from this period. In their premiership winning year of 2021, they won 17 of their 22 matches which is the most games their club has ever won in a single season.
They maintained a 73 per cent win rate throughout these three seasons during the home and away fixture but just won 43 per cent of their finals matches – which were the three in 2021 to win the premiership, they went 0-4 after that.
The major disappointment lies within the 2022 and 2023 seasons, despite winning 16 matches in both seasons and securing the double chance, they fell agonisingly short – to add insult to injury, it was by only a combined nine points last year.
They have lost four straight finals and it looks as though it may be a few years before the Demons get another chance to rectify that record.
Aging List
According to data from the end of last year, the Demons are the third oldest team in the competition with an average age of 25.1 years, but it isn’t just the age profile which is worrying for the club.
The statistics show that there are plenty of younger players on the club’s list, but they haven’t been given enough opportunity with just eight of the 19 players under the age of 23 managing to earn a debut at AFL level, with just two of them having played more than 50 games.
Geelong is an exception to the long-standing unwritten rule that the oldest sides in the competition are generally on their way down and an old demographic is a sign of a premiership window coming to an end.
Melbourne’s lack of developed players between 23-27 years of age is another key issue for the team. They have a very limited number of players on their list who are coming into their prime years, they have lots of youth and experience but nothing in between. This is represented with just eight players in this group compared to the others.
Will the hard times continue?
There was no shortage of Melbourne headlines last season with the Demons plagued by a string of off-field incidents which have followed them around and ultimately led to an external review of the club which occurred over the off-season.
It started with Joel Smith’s positive cocaine test in October last year which saw him provisionally suspended from playing and facing accusations of drug trafficking. Oliver faced some serious personal issues which had his career in doubt, while star midfielder Angus Brayshaw retired at the age of 28 due to ongoing effects from concussion. An ongoing court case has also been hanging over the heads of many people at the club as former president Glenn Bartlett pushes a defamation case against Dees’ key leaders. The Christian Petracca fallout following his life-threatening injury was the latest string to this series of unfortunate events which has brought to light even more questions about the team’s culture and off-field management.
The hard times aren’t expected to stop there for the Melbourne Demons.
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